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Since 2002, I have tracked various shares to determine the influences and predictive value of the chaos model in real life situations.
Graph from Bigcharts.com.
Diary of share price movement.
- 18/02/02 This company has been responding to the share price capacity since early 1999. However, the degree of stability in the share price indicates that the company is holding its own against market forces. This stock is in chaos and its future is uncertain, as its share price can easily fluctuate between US$20 and $45 with little warning.
- Recent share price movement (14/4/2002) indicates that this share price is about to increase to between US$40 and 50.
- It may take another two months (19/05/02), but the price trend of this share is upwards.
- 22/12/02 The upward trend should continue in 2003, with $30 as the maximum share price.
- 31/12/03 This share price should level out, but will probably enter a period of chaos, as the recent rate of increase creates stress.
- 2/5/2004 The predicted chaos and collapse occurred. This share should not drop below $25 for any sustained period and should remain above $30.
- 14/7/2005. Well it is above 25 $. It should remain above $25, but no exciting movement is expected.
- 04/06/2006. The steep growth has led to chaos - the share price could stabilise, but could also easily drop below $30 in 2006. 2007 may see $35.
- 04/2008. This appears a healthy stock responding well to market forces. It entered the "edge of chaos" in 2007, but appears to have recovered through healthy internal adjustments. Even with periodic oscillations, this share price should remain below $40 in 2008.
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