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Graph from Bigcharts.com.
Diary of share price movement.
- 01/12/04 This share price appears undervalued. The recovery in 2003 illustrates that caution is needed on the rate any further growth in this share. Now is the time to purchase stocks in Intel Corporatiomn and hold these for at least one year, but with a careful check on the rate of increase of these shares. The target should be US$35 by 2005, so $25,000 invested today should have grown at least $10,000 by this time next year! Depending on the rate of growth, a sell at $45 should be safe, while if $50 is achieved, you had better sell quickly.
- 15/7/2005. Below $30, this is a share to buy. $40 is possible, but not predicted in the next 12 months.
- 04/06/2006. Well, this has been a disaster. Some environmental force is causing a decline in this share price - AMD (http://www.amd.com/us-en/0,,3715_13368_13369,00.html?redir=CPSW51) . Intel is in a downward spiral. See http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/24/commentary/mkcommentary/sivy/index.htm. AMD is currently taking market share, but a technology innovation could put this share back on top. AMD's gains could just as easily increase. The investment in R&D ($6.5 billion) is a gamble that must pay off. A technology breakthrough would send this share soaring (see http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/releases/20051207corp.htm - this advance was ineffective). The answer as to whether AMD is replacing Intel is the key to investment. Intel looks like a good buy assuming they can compete on price and technology. The AMD Opteron processor rules for now.
- 04/08 This share behaviour was not well predicted. I read the recovery in 2003 as healthy. I still believe that the share price is under valued. Continued research and development is equivalent to adaptation, specialisation and diversification. A new niche opening up is the Intel Atom processor, based on an entirely new microarchitecture designed specifically for small devices and low power, while maintaining the Intel® Core 2 Duo instruction set compatibility consumers are accustomed to when using a standard PC and the Internet. The design also includes support for multiple threads for better performance and increased system responsiveness. All of this on a chip that measures less than 25 mm˛, making it Intel's smallest and lowest power processor yet. I would say buy now.
RISK FACTORS
Acknowledged Intel risk factors include:
Fluctuations in demand for our products may harm our financial results and are difficult to forecast. If demand for our products fluctuates, our revenue and gross margin could be harmed. Important factors that could cause demand for our products to fluctuate include:
- changes in business and economic conditions, including a downturn in the semiconductor industry and/or the overall economy;
- changes in consumer confidence caused by changes in market conditions, including changes in the credit market;
- competitive pressures, including pricing pressures, from companies that have competing products, chip architectures, manufacturing technologies, and marketing programs;
- changes in customer product needs;
- changes in the level of customers’ components inventory;
- strategic actions taken by our competitors; and
- market acceptance of our products.
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