Microsoft (MSFT) (Company Information):

Graph from Bigcharts.com.

Diary of share price movement.

• 18/02/02 Towards the end of 1998, the share price rate of increase was too high and in 1999, three peaks showing periodicity are very clear, showing a stock right on the edge of chaos. The share price rate increases at the very end of 1999 and the stock enters chaos, only to have a new and lower share price capacity defined by investor sentiment. The stock has not stabilised, but its new share price capacity is probably viable, making the stock a good 5 year investment. Its share price rate has not been nearly as steep as Enron's, and the correction seems sound, so it is unlikely that this share will crash. Such observations and opinions would be better based if I had a better knowledge of Microsoft's acquisitions since early 1999. An investment at anything under $70 is probably a safe gamble, but I would not invest my retirement savings in this stock at present. This pattern of a rapid increase in the share price, followed by a period of chaotic price fluctuations has repeated itself over the years. There were two in 1997 and three in 1999. The last of 1999 pushed the share price into a period of chaos that continues today. Note also how more and more wildly the share price varies. This indicates stress and the limits of the share price capacity. 
• 14/04/02 Recovery has been slow. In the short term (6 months) the price could vary between $50 and $70. A price recovery above US$75 is likely over 12 months.
• 22/12/02 A positive trend is apparent. This stock is on the upturn and should soon pass $60. $75 no longer seemed possible by April, but is attainable as a maximum in 2003.
• 31/12/2003 In general no shares have managed a quick recovery. No recovery is anticipated.
• 22/5/2004. This share price is poised for an increased. Now is the time to an investment to bridge 4 or 5 years.
• 14/7/2005. Well, I missed completely here. It still appears the only direction should be up.
• 04/06/2006.  A flat nothing for four to five years!  Vista's release should be positive and drive this up to over $30.
• 04/08.  The Vista joyride is now over. Anything over $35 is too optimistic for 2008, based on historic performance. In late 2007, there are indications of chaotic behaviour that require added caution on this share.